France to EU: Don’t seal South America trade deal against our will

PARIS — France’s new trade minister has a warning for Brussels.
Signing off on the trade deal between the European Union and South American countries of the Mercosur bloc without French support would be a “political mistake” that could undermine European cohesion, Sophie Primas told POLITICO in an interview in her office in Paris.
For Primas, passing the deal without France’s endorsement would be a major blow to farmers and European citizens who are against the deal.
“We risk fueling an anti-European sentiment not only in France, but all over the world,” she said.
Since becoming the junior minister for trade in September after a decade-long stint in the French Senate, Primas has been criss-crossing the globe to make France’s voice heard on trade issues. After flying last week to Chile for bilateral talks and Brazil for a meeting of G20 trade ministers, she will head on Sunday to Shanghai for the China International Import Expo. There, she will confront her Chinese counterparts over tariffs on French exports in a brewing trade war between Brussels and Beijing.
But the Mercosur pact may be her most pressing file. After a quarter of a century of negotiations, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, backed by Germany and 10 other member countries, wants to push the agreement over the finish line despite continued opposition from France, Europe’s second-biggest economy.
Negotiators appear to be targeting the sidelines of the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro on Nov. 18 and 19 as the ideal moment to announce a breakthrough.
Sealing the deal — which would create a market of more than 700 million people accounting for a fifth of global gross domestic product and lift tariffs on goods ranging from beef to cars — would be the icing on the cake for EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis as he completes his term.
“There is a lot of pressure today to announce the finalization of the agreement,” said Primas.
Now that von der Leyen has been confirmed for a second mandate, Germany and the European Commission see a golden opportunity to take advantage of France’s loss of influence in Brussels to close the deal. Gone are the days when French President Emmanuel Macron could stop negotiations in their tracks with merely a text message.
French farmers strongly oppose the deal as they fear South American exporters could cut into their sales with lower-quality goods, while environmental organizations have criticized it for its potential climate downsides.
“This is not just French political discontent — it can affect all European countries,” Primas said. The deal could reignite farmers’ protests that rocked Brussels, Paris and other European capitals earlier this year. Two of France’s main agricultural unions have already announced plans to protest next month, and their movement could spread to Brussels.
Leaders of the 11 pro-deal countries, however, see the pact as both an economic win for European companies looking to conquer new markets and the best way to challenge China’s trade hegemony over the Mercosur bloc, which includes Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia.
But Primas doesn’t buy that argument.
“It is not that black or white,” she said, downplaying the idea that the EU could challenge China’s influence in South America by simply signing the Mercosur deal.
Primas wants the deal to force Mercosur countries to respect the Paris climate agreement, and to impose on Mercosur exporters the same production standards required to European farmers.
“The conditions of the agreement have not fundamentally changed since 2019, despite our requests, and so as it stands we cannot support this text. France disagreed in 2019, and will continue to disagree in 2024,” she said, arguing that France is not the only country to oppose the deal in its current version.
Under EU rules, France would have to find at least three other countries, representing at least 35 percent of the EU population, to vote down the deal — a tough hurdle to pass.
Still, Primas expressed optimism.
“We will find a blocking minority if needed,” Primas said. Countries like Poland, Austria and Ireland have already spoken out against the accord.
Primas said she will look for more allies, especially among hesitant countries, but she declined to name them. Last week in Brasília she also met with Italian and Dutch officials, but it’s not clear yet whether those countries would be willing to join France’s efforts to torpedo the pact.
It also still unclear whether the deal will also need the nod of national parliaments from all EU member countries before entering into force, as is the case for so-called “mixed agreements,” as the legal form of the deal is still being discussed. While the Commission wants to bypass national parliaments, Primas said the deal should not pass without their approval. In France, a majority of lawmakers would likely be ready to vote down the deal.
If the deal clears all those political and procedural hurdles and finally enters force, France would have no legal tool to suspend its implementation, Primas acknowledged.
But the French minister is confident that the deal won’t make it to the finish line.
“The fight is not over,” she said.
Camille Gijs contributed to this report from Brussels.